This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Brazil. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a great deal of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to get my 3rd chair this week to maximum it if I could. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $30k decoration, and then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is your money game play on for me this week. On the gambling line he is currently -1100 and he’s -206 to acquire ITD. He’s also +110 to win in round 1. He’s my favorite play on the board, the sole issue is being able to afford him. For cash games, I will for sure fit him . For GPPs it will be harder to have 6 wins paying for his massive salary, but I enjoy him there as well. I just will not make it a priority to get him into these championship lineups, but money I want that -1100 on my team for a secure win.
GPP play of this week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a fight I like to target. My preferred drama is Spann but Little Nog is in play also. The best thing for FDGTD is -280 and I think Spann could win via KO or sub, and it might be 1st round too. I think he can compete with the $9k fighters and he is a man that kicks them off the 1st place lineup. Small Nog is the better boxer though and Spann does not have a fantastic chin himself, so I could see Nog winning via KO. I really don’t think that’s likely, therefore that I will not be thick on him, but he will make my player pool. Spann is a man I believe is in play in most formats and that I will attempt to be overweight on him. It is more of a grin on Small Nog at this point, but I really don’t see this battle going all 3-rounds and I enjoy Spann to get the win.
Underdog drama of this week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I anticipate Volkanovski to be very chalky and rightfully so. He’s my preferred play in this battle and his previous scores pretty much make him a man you can’t fade if you’re MMEing. I really don’t see him using the ceiling he did in his previous struggles vs Aldo, but those numbers are hard to dismiss. His 6 UFC wins have every totaled over 100 DK points. From most recent fight to his debut, all these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That is pretty amazing. I think he has a good chance of upsetting the legend and maybe getting a finish for another score. I really don’t believe Aldo is a great matchup for him to demonstrate that 100+ point ceiling however at $7.8k we don’t need that many points. I believe IF he wins, he easily pays off that wages.
Fade of this week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There’s no way I’m paying 8.9k for Carolina. She’s the fade of this week and if it disturbs me afterward it disturbs me. I don’t see that being true though even when she wins. I expect this struggle to stay standing and I don’t see her striking at a speed to pay off her price tag without getting a finish. I really don’t think she gets that finish so even if she wins I believe she scores nearer to 75 DK points and at her salary which won’t end up to the optimal lineup. Even if I create 150 lineups this week I won’t receive any exposure to Carolina.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 76-45 to get +260.95 (+$26,095) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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